THE SECRECY- THE MICROSOFT WAY!!!!

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- When it unveiled its Surface tablet, Microsoft pulled off something increasingly rare in the tech world: a true surprise.

Even notoriously tight-lipped Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) can no longer keep details of its iGizmos from reaching the public ahead of the company's carefully crafted launch events.

Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500)knew that if Surface details leaked out, the consequences could be disastrous. For the first time ever, it planned to bypass its PC manufacturing partners and directly compete with them. Also, Microsoft was extremely late to the tablet game. Tipping off rivals like Apple could have set Microsoft back even further.

That's why the company went to extreme -- sometimes painful and often hilariously excessive -- lengths to keep Surface a secret.

The development team worked in a secured building dubbed "The Vault." When choosing a name for the team -- a Microsoft custom -- the group picked "WDS," an acronym that stood for absolutely nothing. It was the winner of a contest held to pick the most obscure, nonsensical name -- one that could never be linked back to Surface.

"When people heard about the WDS team, everyone said, 'Tell us what it means!'" says Panos Panay, Microsoft's hardware chief. "I would say, 'exactly.' No one knew what we were working on.".........http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/28/technology/mobile/microsoft-surface/index.html?iid=HP_LN

EURO DANAGER A HIDDEN VOLCANO...

.................................................................

Sat, Oct 27, 2012 at 11:30

The immeasurable risk European banks may be hiding

There is growing concern among policymakers and analysts that the true extent of European banks' debt problems is being masked. There is growing concern among policymakers and analysts that the true extent of European banks' debt problems is being masked.

Sir Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, became the most high-profile policymaker to date to warn of the dangers of banks putting off foreclosures in a speech Tuesday night.

His stern warning to UK banks that they need to drop the "pretense" that some of their bad debts will be repaid was coupled with the statement that they have "insufficient capital" to deal with losses which have remained undeclared.

Essentially, what seems to have happened is that banks across the euro zone have put off foreclosures on weak businesses - a process known as forbearance. This has been enabled by low interest rates across the region and rescue packages which have injected unprecedented amounts of liquidity into the banking system and helped keep struggling economies afloat.

The scale of forbearance is hinted at in relatively low rates of company insolvencies.

In the UK, despite the recession, insolvency rates are similar to 2002, when the economy grew by 1.6 percent, according to government figures.

Greece's problems have been well flagged - yet just five Greek companies were declared insolvent in 2011, the year it was forced to seek a bailout from international lenders, fewer than in 2007, when its economy was still growing.

This persists across the euro zone, with the weakest economies sometimes experiencing its lowest insolvency rates.

In 2011, the number of insolvencies per 10,000 companies was lowest in Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal, according to calculations from Creditreform.

However, as Nigel Myer, director of credit strategy at Lloyds, pointed out, the extent of this is "effectively invisible" and "almost impossible to quantify." Decisions are made by individual banks and they do not have to declare them under accountancy rules.

Putting off foreclosure could be dangerous not only because it masks the true state of businesses, but because it could mean a faster rate of insolvencies if banks decide to change their policies in response to a worsening economy, with potential damage to employment figures and the broader economy - and to the banks themselves.

"To the extent that forbearance has taken place, a worsening economic environment in these countries could lead to a faster rate of deterioration in asset quality than might be inferred from reported numbers," Myer warned.

Of course, delaying the repayment of non-performing loans can be positive for the economy, particularly in the short-term.

"It has allowed companies to survive and people to be employed," as Myer pointed out. "It also very likely supports tax receipts and reduces the need for social security support."

Sir Mervyn's warning does not chime with other influential figures in the UK.

Andrew Bailey, a member of the Bank's Financial Policy Committee and head of prudential regulation at UK regulator the Financial Services Authority, thanked the banks for their actions earlier in October.

The European countries least likely to be affected by forbearance following worse-than-expected economic data are Switzerland, Austria and Denmark, according to Myer, who suggested spreads in Swiss banks and the recent rally in Danish spreads should be supported by worries about forbearance.

Written by Catherine Boyle, CNBC. Twitter: @cboylecnbc.

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world-news/the-immeasurable-risk-european-banks-may-be-hiding_773101.html

O'Neill PLANNED Pandit OUT...THAT'S THE WAY AT CITI...

'Citi chairman planned Pandit's exit over months'

Sources cite Chairman Michael O'Neill telling Pandit that the board had ?lost confidence' in him and was given an ultimatum to resign immediately or be fired

Jessica Silver-Greenberg & Susanne Craig / Oct 27, 2012, 00:47 IST Vikram Pandit’s last day at Citigroup swung from celebratory to devastating in a matter of minutes. Having fielded congratulatory emails about the earnings report in the morning that suggested the bank was finally on a more solid ground, Pandit strode into the office of the chairman at day’s end on October 15 for what he considered just another of their frequent meetings on his calendar. Vikram Pandit is said to have been stunned when he was given an ultimatum and told: “The board has lost confidence in you.”Michael O’Neill is said to have begun building a case to force out Pandit after O’Neill became chairman in April. Instead, Pandit, the chief executive of Citigroup, was told three news releases were ready. One stated that Pandit had resigned, effective immediately. Another that he would resign, effective at the end of the year. The third release stated Pandit had been fired without cause. The choice was his. The abrupt encounter, described by three people briefed on the conversation, included a terse comment by the chairman, Michael E O’Neill: “The board has lost confidence in you.” A stunned Pandit chose to resign immediately. Even though Pandit and the board have publicly characterised his exit as his decision, interviews with people close to the board describe how the chairman maneuvered behind the scenes for months ahead of that day to force Pandit out and replace him with Michael L Corbat, the board’s chosen successor. Once he became chairman this year, O’Neill, 66, meticulously built a case for the chief executive’s ouster, they say, first meeting privately with less-satisfied board members and then drawing in others until Pandit had virtually no allies left. As Pandit was reeling from his encounter, three board members confronted John Havens, the bank’s chief operating officer and a longtime lieutenant. “Vikram has offered his resignation, and we would like to give you the opportunity to offer yours,” a board member said, following a script prepared by the board’s lawyers, according to several people with knowledge of the meeting. Startled, Havens briefly challenged the directors, pointing to the solid performance of the institutional clients group, and then relented, saying his resignation would be on Pandit’s desk within five minutes. The dramatic boardroom coup at the bank’s Park Avenue headquarters has rankled some people at Citi, especially senior executives who feel that the action was needlessly ruthless and who spoke only on the condition that they not be identified. They point out that Pandit successfully steered the once moribund bank through one of its most turbulent chapters, repaid roughly $45 billion in federal lifelines, rebuilt capital and began to focus the sprawling institution. This week, senior executives at the investment bank convened a group of employees to try to stem any exodus, according to several people briefed on the meeting. Among the employees’ questions: why remain at a bank that treated its top executive so harshly? Now, the new top officials of the bank are circling to retain the support of some crucial executives, including Brian Leach, Citi’s chief risk officer and a longtime ally of Pandit, and James A Forese, who heads the securities and banking division, according to several people close to the discussions. Pandit, O’Neill, Havens and Corbat did not return calls for comment or declined to comment. The seeds of the turmoil were planted in April when O’Neill, who had been on the board since 2009, took over as chairman from Richard D Parsons. Some executives close to Pandit immediately identified O’Neill’s ascent as bad news for Pandit, regardless of how the bank was faring. After all, O’Neill had vied for the chief executive position before it ultimately went to Pandit in 2007. Still, the board transition appeared to go smoothly at first. The handover was marked by a dinner at Citi’s headquarters. Together, Pandit and O’Neill roasted the departing chairman, considered more of a diplomat than a strategic banker. At one point, O’Neill gave a lei to Parsons, in recognition of their shared fondness of Hawaii: Parsons attended a university there and O’Neill was chairman and chief executive of the Bank of Hawaii. Beneath the gaiety, though, tensions between Pandit and O’Neill were already building, some executives said. The dinner came roughly a month after the Federal Reserve dealt an embarrassing setback to Citi by rejecting its proposal to buy back shares and increase its dividend to shareholders. O’Neill used that March misstep to persuade some board members that a better relationship with regulators could have avoided the public failure. Some board members felt, according to people close to the bank, that the Federal Reserve had needed to reject the capital plans of one bank to lend credibility to its stress tests. A handful blamed Pandit for allowing Citi to become that bank. Compared with Parsons, O’Neill took an unusually active managerial role at Citigroup, visiting trading floors and asking detailed questions about some of the business lines. This involvement at times agitated Pandit, according to the people briefed on the matter. Adding to the acrimony with the board, a person who had worked for years to keep the directors informed, Citi’s longtime general counsel, Michael Helfer, left in May. As summer came, O’Neill continued to make his case, raising concerns about Pandit’s grasp of certain business issues to a handful of board members he considered sympathetic, including William Thompson, the former chief executive of Pacific Investment Management according to several people close to the bank. Thompson did not return calls for comment, nor did other members of the board. By August, the chairman had the support of at least a handful of board members, including Diana Taylor. Some directors felt that Pandit had left them out of the loop at times. O’Neill continued to build his case for a leadership change in individual meetings, according to several people familiar with the discussions. He chose to meet with the board members most loyal to Pandit last. In some of these discussions, he told the board members that the decision to replace Pandit was already backed by a majority of the 12-person board, according to people familiar with the discussions. As to a successor, O’Neill had grown comfortable with Corbat well before he became chairman. Corbat headed Citi Holdings, the unit that holds the bank’s soured assets, and O’Neill was the board member overseeing relationships with federal regulators for the unit. As such, the two made Washington trips together, according to senior bank executives. In fact, the boardroom coup that landed Corbat at the top really stung Havens because he had long been a champion of Corbat, according to several people close to the bank. Exactly when the board settled on a successor is unclear. But a few weeks before confronting Pandit, O’Neill called Corbat in London to tell him there was a possibility he might be called upon in the near term to become the chief executive. Discussions among the board members accelerated while Pandit was in Japan at the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.  When Pandit returned to New York to prepare for the quarterly earnings call, he had no inkling of what was awaiting him, people close to him said. Meanwhile, O’Neill was putting the final touches on his plan, according to people familiar with those discussions. Saying Pandit would very likely be resigning soon, he summoned Corbat from London back to New York to take the mantle. http://www.businessstandard.com/india/news//citi-chairman-planned-pandit/s-exit-over-months//490839/

Scientists successful in changing the colour of Gold

LONDON, OCT 25: 

In a breakthrough, scientists have for the first time found a way to change the colour of the world’s most iconic precious metal - Gold.

Researchers from the University of Southampton have discovered that by embossing tiny raised or indented patterns onto the metal’s surface, they can change the way it absorbs and reflects light - ensuring our eyes do not see it as ’golden’ in colour at all.Equally applicable to other metals such as silver and aluminium, this breakthrough opens up the prospect of colouring metals without having to coat or chemically treat them. This could deliver valuable economic, environmental and other benefits.

The technique could be harnessed in a wide range of industries for anything from manufacturing jewellery to making banknotes and documents harder to forge.“This is the first time the visible colour of metal has been changed in this way,” said Professor Nikolay Zheludev, Deputy Director of Southampton’s Optoelectronics Research Centre, who led the project.

“The colours of the objects we see all around us are determined by the way light interacts with those objects. For instance, an object that reflects red light but absorbs other wavelengths will appear red to the human eye,” Zheludev said in a statement.“This is the fundamental principle we have exploited in this project. By embossing metals with patterns only around 100 nanometres across, we’ve found that we can control which wavelengths of light the metal absorbs and which it reflects,” Zheludev added.

The precise shape and height or depth of the patterns determine exactly how light behaves when it strikes the metal and therefore what colour is created. The technique can be used to produce a wide range of colours on a given metal.A silver ring, for example, could be decorated with a number of different patterns, making one part of it appear red, another part green and so on, metal features with sophisticated optical properties that would be almost impossible to imitate could be incorporated into documents as security features.

The nano-patterning is carried out at the research level using well-established techniques such as ion beam milling, which may be envisaged as sand-blasting on the atomic scale.However, the concept may be scaled for industrial production using such processes as nano-imprint, whereby large areas are stamped out from a master template in a manner comparable to CD/DVD production.

“We’ve filed a patent application to cover our work and we’re currently talking to a number of organisations about taking our breakthrough towards commercialisation,” Zheludev said.The study was published in the journals Optics Express and the Journal of Optics.

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/science/scientists-successful-in-changing-the-colour-of-gold/article4031104.ece

There’s so much .... Mahalingam of TCS

There’s so much left to be done, says Mahalingam of TCS RAJESH KURUP THOMAS K. THOMAS

“You know, you are never satisfied, because you will always think that you could have done more. There is a lot of unfinished work ...”

MUMBAI, OCT. 24: 

For Sethuraman Mahalingam, taking Tata Consultancy Services public was the biggest challenge in his career spanning more than four decades.

Mahalingam, or ‘Maha’, as he is fondly called, is retiring as the Chief Financial Officer of the country’s largest software exporter on February 9.

“Taking it to the listing itself was a big thing … We had to create (an entity) from a complex structure, but it was an interesting one. Some part of the work was done by Tata Sons,” Mahalingam, who was instrumental in launching the company’s initial public offering (IPO) in 2004, said in an interaction with Business Line.

“Once you are listed, then you are on a treadmill ... Life has become more complex because of the regulation, and especially because you are a listed entity, you are regulated more. Then you get involved in ensuring that the business delivers, and get to work along with stakeholders and shareholders, and deliver competitive performance,” he added.

Mahalingam, 65, joined TCS in 1968, the year the company began its operations. During his career, he worked across various departments at TCS, ranging from sales to business and operations to finance.

“The second one (challenge) was looking at (the) whole margin issue, from April 2009 to June 2010,” he said. During this period of slowdown, TCS posted better margins than the rest of the industry. Mahalingam will be succeeded by Rajesh Gopinathan, who has been with TCS since 2001. Gopinathan has been appointed as the Deputy CFO.

UPBEAT ABOUT BUSINESS

TCS, a subsidiary of the salt-to-software Tata group, posted a 49.2 per cent surge in its second quarter net profit at Rs 3,434.37 crore, a tad better than street expectations. “Last three months, we haven’t seen any change in pattern. Nothing has changed and that’s why we remain confident for the rest of the year,” Mahalingam said. TCS recorded a forex gain of Rs 92 crore in the quarter against a loss of Rs 93 crore in the last quarter.

“Next quarter, I don’t expect gains of these types. It would be a little less, but it will not be a loss,” he said. On the rupee front, he said the fundamentals were weak, adding that he neither saw foreign direct investments nor foreign institutional investors coming into the market. “I am not able to see anything that will appreciate the rupee,” he added.

LOT MORE TO DO

However, Mahalingam is not quite satisfied at this moment when he has decided to hang up his boots. “You know, you are never satisfied, because you will always think that you could have done more. There is a lot of unfinished work ...”

TCS has a number of billion-dollar business units. Integration of these business units, especially when a new company is acquired, is among the many unfinished businesses. On retirement plans, Mahalingam is playing his cards close to his chest. “All one can say is that one can’t get into total retirement.”

rajesh.kurup@thehindu.co.in

Focus on RELCAPITAL 24, 2012 7:11 PM

AIRTEL CORPORATE LOBBYING.... CLAIM BY RCOM

One-time fee favours ‘coterie led by Airtel’, Anil Ambani writes to PM

THOMAS K. THOMAS

RCom chief says EGoM overruling AG is ‘highly unusual’

NEW DELHI, OCT 22: 

Battle between Reliance Communication and Bharti Airtel on spectrum is now out in the open. Reliance Communications’ Chairman Anil Ambani has, in a letter to the Prime Minister, questioned the propriety of the plan to impose a one-time fee on 4.4 Mhz spectrum and upwards. The letter alleges that the policy is loaded in favour of a “coterie led by Bharti Airtel”.

“When I look at the completely biased and partisan approach adopted by the Department of Telecom against new players like Reliance and Tatas, to the staggering financial advantage of the older coterie of GSM operators led by Bharti Airtel, I am left wondering whether all this can be attributed just to poor judgment, or there is something more than meets the eye,” Ambani wrote. The letter dated October 11 was sent ahead of the last meeting of the Empowered Group of Ministers on this issue.

UNUSUAL DECISION

The EGoM had overruled an opinion by the Attorney-General and fixed the spectrum cut-off limit at 4.4 Mhz for GSM and 2.5 Mhz for CDMA. The AG had opined that the cut-off be set at 6.2 Mhz. Due to the EGoM’s decision, RCom has to pay for the additional 2.5 Mhz of CDMA spectrum. It also won’t be able to apply for additional spectrum beyond 4.4 Mhz.

Ambani termed the EGoM’s decision highly unusual. “The views of the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission who had endorsed the approach of the learned AG have also been brushed aside,” he said. Ambani claimed that international lenders, rating agencies and investors were aghast at the new EGoM decisions which, he said, destroy the sanctity of past contracts.

According to analysts, the one-time fee will cost the operators around Rs 30,000 crore. Bharti Airtel and RCom would have to pay Rs 4,000-5,000 crore. Had the cut-off been set at 6.2 Mhz, RCom would not have had to pay anything.

“The global community is also concerned that these decisions of the EGoM will lead to fresh protracted litigation and widespread adverse international coverage,” he said.

thomas.thomas@ thehindu.co.in

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/info-tech/onetime-fee-favours-coterie-led-by-airtel-anil-ambani-writes-to-pm/article4023120.ece

Rs 100 to Rs 1.12 lakh in just 2 yrs

Rs 100 to Rs 1.12 lakh in just 2 yrs

A favourable swap ratio in the merger of Supriya & Sadanand Sule's private firm with Lavasa and a high-premium secondary market purchase sweetened deal

N Sundaresha Subramanian & Sanjay Jog / Mumbai Oct 21, 2012, 00:44 IST Supriya and Sadanand Sule, daughter and son-in-law of NCP President Sharad Pawar got sweetheart deals in Lavasa, not once but twice. First, their shares in Yashomala Leasing and Finance Pvt Ltd (YLFPL) were swapped for those of Lavasa Corporation at a favourable ratio of 1:750 in 2002. This merger gave the Sules a 20.81 per cent stake in Lavasa Corporation, then known as Lake City Corp Pvt Ltd. Later, the promoters themselves bought shares at a substantial premium, setting the benchmark for the Sules’ exit at a premium. The facts become interesting in the context of police officer-turned-activist Y P Singh’s recent allegations of irregularities in Lavasa deals having benefited the NCP leadership. According to a scheme of merger approved by the Bombay High Court in August, 2002, Lavasa issued “750 equity shares of Rs 10 each and 1,600 redeemable preference shares of Rs 10 each at a premium of Rs 10 per share… to the shareholders of YLFPL for every one equity share of Rs 100 held by the then shareholders of YLFPL”. Thus, for one share worth Rs 100, the Sules got Lavasa equity shares worth Rs 7,500 and preference shares worth Rs 32,000. CAPITAL HISTORY Feb 2000: Pearly Blue Lake Resorts incorporated Dec 2000: Name changed to Lake City Corporation Dec 2001: Capital infusion in 2 tranches (1.49 mn shares @ Rs 58.34 apiece & 0.74 mn shares @ Rs 73.35 Jan 2002: Board approves merger with Yashomala Aug 2002: Bombay High Court approves merger at swap ratio of 1:750 Oct 2002: Supriya and Sadanand Sule get 1.24 mn Lavasa shares in exchange for 1,665 Yashomala shares Sep 2003: Lake City promoters (HCC) buy 1.5 million shares at Rs 106.67 in secondary sale Mar–Sep 2004: Promoters buy 750,000 shares at same price Jun 2004: Lake City renamed as Lavasa Corporation Nov 2004: Promoters buy 49,000 shares at Rs 120.68 Sep 2005: Promoters sell this entire secondary market purchase of 29.99 million @ Rs 120.68 Source: Draft offer document Further sweetening the deal, just a month prior to the board meeting (January 2002), in which the merger with YLFPL was approved, in December 2001, Lavasa had issued shares at Rs 73.35 each. Thus, one Rs 100 YLFPL share held by the Sules multiplied into 750 Lavasa shares worth Rs 55,012.50. Assuming the Sules exited in 2003-04, as claimed by the NCP spokesperson on Thursday, the exit price could not have been lower than Rs 106.67 apiece. Because, that is the price at which the promoters bought some 1.5 million shares in September 2003. It is not clear if the Sules exited the company through this transaction. At this price, one Rs 100 YLFPL share eventually fetched Rs 80,002.50. In addition to this, 1,600 redeemable preference shares would be worth another Rs 32,000, assuming there was no further appreciation in value. According to the draft offer document filed by Lavasa Corporation in September 2010, “pursuant to the merger of Yashomala Leasing and Finance Pvt Ltd with our company 1,248,750 equity shares were issued to Sadanand B Sule jointly with Supriya Sule”. At the swap ratio of 1:750, this means the couple held 1,665 YFLPL shares between them worth Rs 1.66 lakh at face value. Thus, an investment of Rs 1.66 lakh in YLFPL zoomed to Rs 18.64 crore. Of this, Rs 13.32 crore came from their Lavasa equity holding, while the preference share holding of 2.66 million alone was worth Rs 5.32 crore. Emails seeking comments sent to spokespersons of Lavasa and HCC did not elicit any response. Sadanand and Supriya Sule did not respond to an emailed questionnaire on Friday evening and text messages sent on Friday as well as Saturday. A person familiar with the transactions said the merger was done in a transparent manner and was approved by court. Two other couples who were shareholders in YFLPL also seem to have enjoyed similar appreciation. Aniruddha P Deshpande and Sona Deshpande and Vinay V Maniar and Ruchira Maniar also were issued exactly the same number of shares issued to the Sule couple, according to the scheme of merger. As on the date of the draft prospectus, Vinay Maniar held 28.89 million shares amounting to 5.95 per cent stake in Lavasa. Thus, even if they had sold in 2003-04 as claimed, the Yashomala shareholders got a sweetheart deal, though the sum is small. If they sold at the valuation at which Axis entered, then it is another matter altogether. http://www.businessstandard.com/india/news/rs-100-to-rs-112-lakh-in-just-2-yrs/490261/

Victor Niederhoffer- GREATEST SPECULATOR

Victor Niederhoffer

en.wikipedia.org

Victor Niederhoffer is a hedge fund manager, champion squash player, bestselling author and statistician. Victor Niderhoffer was born in Brooklyn to a Jewish family. Wikipedia 

Born: December 10, 1943 (age 68) Children: Galt Niederhoffer Books: The Education of a Speculator Education: Harvard University, University of Chicago, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business

CHAPTER ONE

The Education of a SPECULATOR

---

By VICTOR NIEDERHOFFER

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

 Read the Review

The Old Trader and the Yen

I wish I was the fish, he thought, with everything he has against only my will and my intelligence.

Ernest Hemingway
The Old Man and the Sea

I am an old trader, and I trade the yen in the cash market. I once had the best record among all the traders. I was rated number one in my field, and my picture was in all the newspapers. Customers crowded my doors. The attractive currency brokers talked sexy to me, told me where their customers' stops were, and where the central banks were buying and selling. The great Soros more than once called to have me trade for his own account.

But I got in over my head. I bought the dollar when the dollar:yen was 93. It went to 88 in just a few hours. I was eaten alive. The banks will not give me credit anymore, and many of my customers have left. I still have some customers--people who are not happy with feeding all their money to the stock market. They are afraid that it will crash as it did in 1929 and 1987. They look to me to land a big return, but without risk or drawdown. I can do it; but they don't want me to gamble, and I cannot do it without gambling. The risk creates opportunity. Still, I am humble because I have lost many times.

Lopez, an 18-year-old student from Mexico, worked at my side for free, just so he could learn from me. He ran computer programs for me, got me tea, and woke me when I was tired. Lopez has now left to trade at a more successful firm in the daytime, but he comes to visit me after hours. "Victor," he says to me, "I could help you tonight. We've made some money together."

"No," I say, "You're with a better firm; stay with them."

"But I remember how the dollar went down for 10 days in a row and you kept buying it. And then it went back up, and we made back all we lost and more."

"Yes, but now the dollar is going up and we're selling it."

"The Bank of Japan and the U.S. Treasury want it up; everyone in the world wants it up and I am fighting it. I am already short $300 million and the forces are against me."

"Can I get you some tea? The dollar's been up many days in a row. Let me run some programs."

"Yes, of course. Between traders," I say.

"Victor, the patterns are bearish. Can I sell alongside?"

"No, you are too young to risk everything. You have to learn to sit it out when the tide is too strong."

At 7 P.M. in New York, it is morning in Asia. The sun is shining there. Men in white shirts are preparing for battle. The banks will wait for their customers to sell the dollar to hedge their export earnings, and then they will buy it. They have a great advantage over me, for I have been sitting in front of my monitor, staring at the screen, eyes burning, for two nights and a day, and now part of another night. They drink sake each night with their friends from school and the ministries, and they learn what is going to be announced and where they will be buying and selling. When the poor folks, the outsiders, demand an investigation because a number was leaked, the Central Bank says no investigation is necessary because leaks are impossible.

When I visited Japan, I saw the hotels where the white-shined men sleep in little coffins on nights when they are too drunk to get home safely. When they do get home, their wives massage them and dress them and put them onto the bullet train for their two-hour commute to work.

My wife has gone to Maine with the kids. She is worried. "Why not get out and call it a day? You can't seem to get it right this year."

"No, It's bearish," I say.

The waters are very deep. Maybe too deep. The Japanese trade balance is scheduled to be announced. If the surplus is lower, there will be no need for the United States to bash the dollar down to save American jobs in the Rust Belt. The dollar will rise, and I will be buried because I am short an amount ten times greater than my worth. Already there are rumors that the surplus is lower. The Bank of Japan is said to leak news of this to cushion the blow of the announcement. Japan has been running a $50 billion annual trade surplus with the United States.

The current Assistant Secretary of State has said that this surplus is unacceptable. I knew him when we were boys at Harvard. He was known as an economist then. Now he doesn't say a word unless it will help his boss. I have to eat, so it is well to know what's good for the Democrats. The great Soros is a Democrat, and he is rich beyond the dreams of such as I. Maybe I m not as rich as he because I went to Chicago after college.

I dialogue with myself. "I wish that I had never met Milton Friedman or George Stigler, or his son Steve, or Jim Lorie, with their liberalism of the classics.

"Fool! Is this the way for a friend to talk? You love these men!"

"Yes, I revere them, but they make me poor."

"Poverty does not matter!"

I don't talk during the trading day. Noise distracts me from the job at hand. When I played squash, I would wear a sock on my hand before the match so that no one would shake my hand and distract me. But now I talk to calm myself. I should not talk out loud even when there is no one around to think I'm crazy.

I used to listen to music when I traded at night. Now the CD player is broken, and I don't wish to spend the money to get a new one while I am having losses. Besides, in the time it would take to turn on the music, something big might happen to the yen. That would be just my luck, to have the dollar spike down in the two seconds I was away. I need some luck today. But it is better to use my knowledge and tricks than to count on luck.

I think about music. About all the funeral music my traders play when I am down. The Mozart Requiem, Beethoven's "Moonlight" sonata. Why couldn't I be long the dollar rather than short? I want to cry. The Beethoven Marcia Funebre has a complete cycle in it, from high C sharp to low G sharp and back, in four measures. The dollar:yen has gone down from a high of 105 to 80 and now it is back to 93. What if it goes back to 105?

Now is not the time to think about cycles or music. Now is the time to think of only one thing: the yen.

My only hope is the Bank Negara, the terrible central bank of Malaysia. Bank Negara is like a pirate. It trades violently and takes no prisoners. It is happy to wreck me and my fellow traders. So far, it has lost $10 billion, almost bankrupting the country, by always going against the dollar and bonds. The Malaysians like to stampede the market at 7 P.M. New York time. If they call up all 50 banks in their network at the same time, in Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore, and sell the dollar, I may be able to take my line back with dignity.

A man should never give up hope. But it is better to have science. I know what happens to the yen when the soybeans are up and gold is down. If good luck comes, I will be ready for it.

Soros is long the dollar. He is always with the force when governments and businesspeople want something to happen. His father taught him to survive when the Gestapo was interning the Jews in the concentration camps. My father is dead because he listened to the big shots at the Memorial Hospital, who then shot him up with chemicals that destroyed his heart and lungs.

I played tennis with Soros last night. I hope he is playing tennis now, so he will not be able to buy any more dollars for a while. I wonder whether my father could beat him in a tennis match. We hardly ever lost when I played doubles with my father. When I play with Soros as my partner, I almost always lose. But that is because Soros pays the pros to play against us. The exchanges, the Treasury, the trend followers, the banks, the politicians and policy makers are all against me now. Now is not the time to think of my father or Soros, or fellow traders. Now is the time to do only one thing: watch the screen.

Bank of Tokyo flashes a price of 93. An Australian bank, the Westpac of Sydney, flits over the waters offering dollars at 92.75. But the fish are too big for it. It's gone in a second and now DKB Bank of Tokyo is bidding 93. That's bad. They always seem to know what's going on first.

Just then, I see the dollar: mark drop sharply. Union Bank of Switzerland is offering it down. "Be honest like your country," I say. The mark and yen often swim together. Bank Negara must be hitting the dollar while Europe is asleep. What a huge trade. 1.50, 1.49, 1.48. Please now, move to the yen. Mark:yen must follow. The yen is cheap. Come on, the yen is lovely.

I wish I were rich and powerful. The most important banks would request my advice. I could influence prices directly. I would put up my bids on the Telerate like the other big fish. I could afford direct lines to the banks. Best of all would be a Reuters dealing machine. I would contact four banks at the same time and hit them before they change the yen. Rothschild himself would tremble. I would discuss good books with the learned. Now I must deal with brokers. I pay them points to trade, so I always start behind. The banks know I trade through brokers. When the brokers call on my behalf, the banks change their course and trade ahead of me before I can catch them. It would not spoil the master plan if I were a rich man.

Now, I'll put in some orders with the broker to sell dollars at 93.50. I'll let them have those dollars where they want it. They won't know it's me. Please take it. Come on now, it's beautiful! They can't leave it this cheap. But they don't take it.

Now I see the Deutschebank circling. They offer to sell the dollar at 1.4850. This is good. Where there is collar: mark selling, dollar:yen selling will soon follow. My phone rings. They are beginning to buy dollars from me at 93.50. "Sell very carefully," I tell the broker. "Take a few yards only. I don't want to frighten them away."

The buying stops. Go down, dollar. Please fall back. I can't hurt you. I am just one old man. I wait with my orders back in full size. Don't be afraid. Please come back to 93.50. Buy my dollars, yen. Smell my millions, hard and cold. Eat them, yen; eat them.

Yes! Three phones ring at the same time. They have swallowed the bait. I have let out a line $100 million long. What a buyer. That must be Bacon. Or Jones. He took my bait as if it were a sardine. I will give him more line at 94. Take it. Price does not matter to you. Give me the edge, not the Bank of Japan. Then you will be so far behind that, in the morning, when the stock markets in Europe sink, I will kill you.

I love you, yen. You are so orderly, so loyal, like your country. I don't hold it against you that you would not take my dollars when I tried to buy food in Tokyo for my family of eleven. Now take my dollars. You feel the gaijin. are dirty. They will not take their shoes off in your crowded restaurants. But I do take my shoes off. I'll build a rock garden and sit and pray to Shinto gods if you'll just take my dollars at 93.50 and then go down to 91.

I know that you want to go down, dollar:yen. The earthquake created tremendous demand for dollars to buy foreign goods from the industries destroyed in Osaka. I realize that your economy is in recession because the West cannot afford to buy your goods at these high prices. But please go up a little first. Fool some buyers into thinking you want to go up. Then, when they sell, you'll go down even harder.

Nothing happens. The dollar is going up steadily. I feel it drawing my balance lower and lower. What will I do if it keeps pulling me down? My brokers will give me a margin call if the dollar goes any higher. 94.00, 94.25, 94.50. I just lost another $4 million. Turn down, dollar. Please go lower. I'd better sell some more dollars to feign strength. They should not know how weak I am. All right. Sell ten yards of the dollar at the market. That will kill the dollar.

The dollar takes my selling like I am a minnow. The dollar is pulling my house along with it.

I am afraid. I have gone too far. The Japanese trend followers will all jump in if the dollar goes above 95.00. The bubble will drown me. The Japanese are very brilliant. Their nine-year-old schoolchildren solve problems that Harvard and Williams students could not solve. But they run in herds. The nail that sticks out gets hammered. If the dollar sticks up any higher, the entire Japanese trading community will jump in to buy it. A higher dollar will become an ever rising bubble.

I wish Lopez were here. I need tea. I need to see what happens when the dollar is at a new high at 8 P.M. on a Tuesday. But he has seen me lose too many times, and he is with another shop. I wish I were young again. Then, if I lost, I could recover. Now it is too hard. When I go out with my wife, I get asked if I am her father. I must survive now so that my children and Susan will live.

Please, I beg of you. I pray: Slow down, then go down. Shame on me. How can one who has no superstition pray? Francis Galton did not pray. He thought of his shared heredity with all other creatures and this made him reverential. But the priests do not die older than others. All my praying will not make the dollar go down. I am a man, and I must do my work.

If the dollar goes up any higher, my customers will kill me. My partners will look at me and say, "We told you not to sell the premium." Then they will say nothing. They will go home to their families and say, "We lost. We're in trouble. Victor did it again."

The dollar is now open in Tokyo. The dollar cannot go up as long as I sell it, and it will not go down until I buy it back. We are in a dead heat.

No one should be alone in his old age. I should be with my six daughters in Maine. But I cannot even urinate for fear that the move down will occur.

Here is the Japanese Ministry of Finance head saying that there is no danger of the discount rate in Japan being decreased again. It is already just 1 percent. That is good for me. The dollar will go down if the rates are high. But the Japanese traditionally deny that they will decrease it three times before lowering. This is their third denial. All the traders know this and the dollar goes up. It touches 94.50.

The Japanese surplus will soon be announced. If it is lower, I will go under. How can I stay in when all hinges on a number that all the traders in Japan already know about! The direct line rings.

"Victor, do you have any stops?" my broker asks. If I tell him, then immediately the price will go to that level and I will be dead. "I don't believe in stops," I say strongly. "Yen, I will stay with you until I am dead," I say softly. The yen will stay with me, too. But I am as patient as the yen. I played squash every day for ten years in a row before winning the big one. I have been watching the screen for 52 hours without sleep. And I am not going to give up.

The yen is my friend, and there is a full moon out. The trends often change when the moon is full. The moon affects the markets just as it affects women, crops, crime, and the tides. I am afraid I have as much chance of killing the dollar as of killing the moon. Still, I will not fail for lack of effort or preparation.

I'm hungry. I have not eaten since lunch and the gnats are starting to come in through the window screen and are biting me all over. Perhaps I should stare at the computer screen harder. Will that make it turn in my favor? It's all I have left.

Just then, the dollar jumps down. Hail to the Chief. The Chairman of the Eminent Persons Council, generally thought to be a mouthpiece for the Administration, is speaking in Japan. He calls for an equilibrium dollar of 80. The dollar drops to 94, 93, 92. Yes! Dollar holders are desperate to get out. This is what I was born to do. To take their dollars when they are afraid to hold them. To give them the dollars back when they want to sell me their goods. I end up with all their dollars and all their goods.

I must buy $400 million without anyone's knowing, or else I will turn the market. But I am all alone. And brokers will rush ahead to buy as soon as they know what I'm doing.

I pick up two phones and press the speaker on another. "What's your dollar bid and offer for 12.5 yards of yen?" I say. I wait a second and then say, "I buy dollars." And with three words, I just bought $375 million against the yen. I am whole again.

I call Susan. My mouth is dry and my ulcers are violently painful. "I'll be coming to Maine tomorrow," I say. "Are you alive?" she asks. "We both killed each other," I say.

I go hit some balls on my racquetball court before finishing my job and writing up all the tickets. But my job is not over yet. I still have 2.5 yards.

By the time I get back, the sharks have hit me. The trade surplus is announced. The dollar moves to 93. I lost a quarter million on just those 2.5 yards, but I just made $3 million. Not to worry. I throw on 4 more yards just for the fun of it.

But then the sharks begin to attack with horrible fury, as if they were maddened by my escape. The Bank of Japan buys dollars. The rumors were true, after all. The price rushes to 94, with resolution and malignancy. It was too good to last. Why did I do something for fun? I never have fun trading. It is too serious. I just dropped a million.

My nerve is going now. I close out all my positions. "I shouldn't have sold so many dollars," I say, "both for your sake and mine."

Like he fisherman in The Old Man and the Sea, I think, "Fish that you were, I am sorry that I went too far out. I ruined us both. But we have killed many sharks, you and I, and ruined many others. How many did you ever kill, old fish?"

I fought the dollar in a battle to the death. Shortly after I covered, the Bank of England, the Bundesbank, and the Federal Reserve (acting for the Treasury) all intervened to buy the dollar. By the next morning, the dollar rose to 98. Had I not bought it back, I would have lost $40 million, about 100 percent of my capital.

I am sore from my wounds. I feel like the sole survivor from a plane crash. I am tired. Before I leave, I check my faxes. A memo from my lawyer informs me that a certain agency wishes to review my filings for the past 10 years. Two boxcars of documents.

The sharks are always circling, always tearing at my flesh. Hades, go away; you can't have it. It's mine. I've paid my dues. I cannot keep the sharks from hitting me. They are very powerful and do what they please. But I will continue to fight them while I have strength. I have my resolution, and there are many things I can do.

As I leave my office, my partners are coming in to pick up the pieces of the trades and even out the weights. "What a trade it was," I hear them saying as I drive away.

“ZERO COST- NEVER LOSS” MODEL

Not even a single day I could make Rs 1000/- for the last 20trading sessions. The reasons could be many. I call it like STORIES.

In my earlier trading days I never lost money on any given day for two months in a row.

Now there is lot of confusion, mis-reading the screen and wrong calculations…what not many things are generating tabulating for confusion. The turbulence in the mind is heavy and forcing me to take un-necessary positions causing me to PAY for IT.

I lost heavly during Jan-12 boom. I asked every body to buy in the market from last week of Dec-11 but unfortunately I kept a short position in TATASTEEL. I converted the day position in to a night position, paid heavy penality. The next day unfortunate position was taken, instead of covering the old one, we took another short position. The market zoomed like any thing. The beauty part is we lost our TWO internet connections. Calling the broker to square off the positions lead to Rs 15000 loss. So kept for one more day..loss is mounting…brick batting…blame game…Sleepless nights…everything crystallized to a loss of Rs55000 LOSS. I still remember the trauma. The suffering is heavy but I didn’t lost my smile on my face. Because I have not opted the position but failed to manage.

I have very good experience in managing my positions….MY TALL CLAIM…

Now I am not getting the confidence due to my On & Off screen management and readings…

At one time when my energies are high…I thought of building an empire for the deserving people ...needs to be supported…all is DREAM…the reality is …I am in requesting position….

The FACT is I have tremendous and stupendous STOCK MARKET knowledge…but behaving like a Stupid…loosing all opportunities for want of some thing…I have No eligibility to do any sacrifice…Only to take on the Challenges…

The WINNER is the one who accepts Challenges and convert them into success stories…where as the loser will succumbs to pressure an seek sympathy  from the …

The CAPACITIES are built on CONFIDENCE to ACHIVE and the Bench Marks of Success CYCLES goes…on..

I HAVE A DREAM OF CONVERTING MY SHARES INTO “ZERO COST- NEVER LOSS” MODEL. I STARTED WITH ONE AND WILL ADD….