The markets across the globe are in a queue to accept the US markets decision as DOW falls to 6-year lows. The Nifty is holding above 2735 could be a challenge as the global concern has worsen than expected.
The Nifty at home was down by Budget sentiment and followed by the US concern could hold for two days above 2750. The recovery in RIL is very important as the Banking sector lost more than 15% in some stocks and around 10% in most of the heavy weights despite the expectation of rate cut on the cards.
The stocks like GE shipping moved up from 187 to 225 levels now back to square. The ICICI from 360 levels to 440 levels now back to 360 levels. The effort made to move was used to exit is the main problem in the markets. The HNIs, MFs and FIIs have little conviction that the world economy will recover soon so is the Indian economy.
The Nifty is good above 2803 as Reliance good above 1306. The markets today may not hold above 2780 level cold test 2704 level first and the better support exists at 2680 level. The volumes were dried up and the trading has been confined to limited stocks with high degree of volatility based on news/expectations.
Today Nifty may face resistance at 2793 level may get support at 2724-29 level and next at 2703-05 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1301-1298 level and will become weak below 1281 level may get support at 1246 level and next at 1238 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 683-86 level may get support at 662 level and next at 651-53 level. The Rel Infra may face resistance at 516 level may get support at 486 level and next at 473-71 level where the recent bottom support exists.
The ICICI may face resistance at 373-75 level may get support at 341-42level. The Relcap may face resistance at 381-83 level may get support at 359-57 level. The Bharti which built huge open interest at 640 CA may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level. The BHEL is facing resistance above 1410-12 level may correct steeply if it closes below 1350 level.
The Asian Markets are trading in red with nearly1.5 - 2% cut and the ADRs were not deeply cut. The SGX Nifty is trading at 2740 level down by 52 points. The challenge now is to recover from the lows. In case the Govt willing to provide easy liquidity situation by signaling RBI to cut the CRR and Repo rate cuts to spur the local demand as the inflation is totally under control may save our markets, other wise the markets next broad range will be in a range of 2830-2420 for next quarter.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
The Asian drag….
The Asian markets are in no good mood to move up can spread their shadow on our markets. The Nifty is good above 2915 level and has resistance above 2950 level.
The RIL may face resistance at 1405-08 level and will become weak below 1383 level to touch a low at 1341-43 level. The ONGC one of the leading counters of Nifty has suddenly got support with the 1200 cr IT case facing resistance at 720 level will become weak below 693 level will touch 671-73 level. The immediate support levels will hold as the markets are enjoying the Bulls support.
The two days consequent bear hammering on Relinfra right from the 593-96 level brought it down to 527 level could recover to 542 level. The scrip shall not trade below 511-14. The markets may re-rate RIL and the fertilizer companies with the gas supply.
Yesterday star performers like ICICI and Relcap may continue to get Bulls support. The ICICI is good above 421 levels but it has resistance at 447-46 level. The Relcap has resistance at 432-35 region but is good above 411.
The beaten down stocks made good recovery, be it ZEE, EDUCOM or MC-DOWELL. Yesterday ZEE lost nearly all the gain made in the previous session.
The RIL may face resistance at 1405-08 level and will become weak below 1383 level to touch a low at 1341-43 level. The ONGC one of the leading counters of Nifty has suddenly got support with the 1200 cr IT case facing resistance at 720 level will become weak below 693 level will touch 671-73 level. The immediate support levels will hold as the markets are enjoying the Bulls support.
The two days consequent bear hammering on Relinfra right from the 593-96 level brought it down to 527 level could recover to 542 level. The scrip shall not trade below 511-14. The markets may re-rate RIL and the fertilizer companies with the gas supply.
Yesterday star performers like ICICI and Relcap may continue to get Bulls support. The ICICI is good above 421 levels but it has resistance at 447-46 level. The Relcap has resistance at 432-35 region but is good above 411.
The beaten down stocks made good recovery, be it ZEE, EDUCOM or MC-DOWELL. Yesterday ZEE lost nearly all the gain made in the previous session.
Sunday, January 18, 2009
The symmetry and possibility….
The stock market is the best approved place where the history is well recognized to predict the future. The technical analysts are interested to extrapolate with an extension/drawn forward to predict the future based on the past. So the stock market predictors rely on the past and believe that the past is filled with vigor to reap profits in future. To draw a conclusion on the matter I want to go to a thumb rule to read the future performance. The possibility of a repetition to make right symmetry could be possible at Nifty.
The Nifty was at around 6357 level in first week of Jan-08 and fell from the top to touch a low of 4468 level in the middle of March-08. A fall of nearly 1890 points from the top is nearly 30% of the registered high. Then the market took some oscillation till it reaches 5298 in the first week of May with 830 points rise is exactly 50% of the fall.The Nifty again fell from 5298 level to 4392 level to wipe out all the gains made earlier but took some support at the earlier lows that could propel Nifty to bounce in 5-6 trading days to touch a high of 4680 level which is again 30% rise.
The relentless steep fall from the 4680 level to 3848 by first week of July made a knock blow. The Nifty meltdown could wipe out the dreams of Bulls as it was earlier thought as a “BULL market correction”. The fall is again 30% from the top of 5298 level to 3848 level. The Nifty took support from this disastrous level to touch a high of 4215 but fell to 3926 level formed as a double bottom. The Nifty gained some strength to touch a high of 4650 level in the middle of August-08. This rise is exactly 505 of the second fall that triggered from 5298.
The third leg of the fall from the top took when the Nifty touched a high of 4650 level to touch a bottom of 3799 but again bounced as if the support existed at 3800 level to touch a level of 4303 level in 3 days but collapsed to a bottom level at 3199 level, bounced to 3650 in 3 days and continued the fall as extended leg to touch the lowest point till date at 2252 in the last week of October. This carnage in the Indian stock markets can be collaborated to a massacre and this relentless fall from the top to bottom is correlates to 63-65 % fall.
The beauty of the recent rise from 2252 to 3147 level is finding a place as a bounce back of the fall from 4650 then there is one more steep correction……………………..………..then the top for this possible correction be at 3147 level. If the same logic will drag the Nifty to 1940-60 level ??????????????????????
The Nifty was at around 6357 level in first week of Jan-08 and fell from the top to touch a low of 4468 level in the middle of March-08. A fall of nearly 1890 points from the top is nearly 30% of the registered high. Then the market took some oscillation till it reaches 5298 in the first week of May with 830 points rise is exactly 50% of the fall.The Nifty again fell from 5298 level to 4392 level to wipe out all the gains made earlier but took some support at the earlier lows that could propel Nifty to bounce in 5-6 trading days to touch a high of 4680 level which is again 30% rise.
The relentless steep fall from the 4680 level to 3848 by first week of July made a knock blow. The Nifty meltdown could wipe out the dreams of Bulls as it was earlier thought as a “BULL market correction”. The fall is again 30% from the top of 5298 level to 3848 level. The Nifty took support from this disastrous level to touch a high of 4215 but fell to 3926 level formed as a double bottom. The Nifty gained some strength to touch a high of 4650 level in the middle of August-08. This rise is exactly 505 of the second fall that triggered from 5298.
The third leg of the fall from the top took when the Nifty touched a high of 4650 level to touch a bottom of 3799 but again bounced as if the support existed at 3800 level to touch a level of 4303 level in 3 days but collapsed to a bottom level at 3199 level, bounced to 3650 in 3 days and continued the fall as extended leg to touch the lowest point till date at 2252 in the last week of October. This carnage in the Indian stock markets can be collaborated to a massacre and this relentless fall from the top to bottom is correlates to 63-65 % fall.
The beauty of the recent rise from 2252 to 3147 level is finding a place as a bounce back of the fall from 4650 then there is one more steep correction……………………..………..then the top for this possible correction be at 3147 level. If the same logic will drag the Nifty to 1940-60 level ??????????????????????
Monday, November 24, 2008
The Reflections of the past…..
The history is to visit the past to plan for the future with the presents scenarios. The stock markets provide ample of evidence to correlate with the past experiences. The end of the Bull market can be gauged by the exuberant rise in the small cap stocks that are known to no body. The reverse is the case for the end of the bear market when the well known most trusted firm’s bankrupt and the HNIs and the wise will grab the opportunity to invest for long term. Now the time is……
Uncertainty is Certain… 25-12-2007
The stock valuations are most vulnerable by their nature to the minor and major issues and to local and international issues even if they are not of much importance on the face of influence a lot in the minds of investors cause anxiety fluctuate in price irrespective of the percentage of concern. We can easily say, “the uncertainty is certain” at the bourses each time and every time. Those who fear about uncertainty can search their souls in peace, as nothing is certain.
As expected in my earlier write up the market bounced back on bull track in 4 trading sessions.(………if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run…….. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma).
Now the challenge at the Nifty level is to stay above 5778-71 to register a new high and above 6400 level by the end of first week of Feb-2008. The run up in the prices of power and infra will take a back seat and the service sectors and hotels will enjoy the support of bulls along with FMGC & retail move. The gas transportation and the network is the emerging sector. I have been suggesting holding in Fertliser stocks and the next big bet on banks with insurance exposure. These sectors will explode maximum followed by oil exploration and allied services.
No longer immune…….
The Indian markets are resilient to the external pressures of equity fall as the markets see good future but the immediate and short-term pressures cann’t be ruled out. In my ealier write up dated: 29/10/2007, clearly mentioned the possible up side be capped at 6290.
It can’t be stretched further….
…..I foresee the Bull run can become a long consolidation period- more than 6-9 months with a range of 5250-6290 at Nifty level.
The markets are likely to see more down ward action than upward momentum. The rise and fall ratio could be of 1:3 from next week onwards until Aug-Sep-2008. Incase economy could face the challenges for next 6 months than the upward journey in the stocks resume. Indian stocks revaluation based on the broad based economy and growth prospects is over and the real test is that the companies have to perform given the opportunities, then the markets. So is US………
The markets are fighting for their survival as the Bull Run took a beating at the bourses. The markets will take considerable time to resume their upward move. (Pls.read my earlier write ups.---the range suggested at 5250-6290 but the high touched at 6347). The game plans of the operators are very clear that they took the Sub-prime issue for more than 6-months so that the retail investors forget. I warned that the sub-prime issue is much bigger than what they pronouncing.
Now the long period of consolidation is good opportunity to traders as they can get in and get out at every 12-15% rise and fall. The earnings will be good to the Indian industry as the consumer demand and the economic growth continue to flourish. The markets likely to test the bottom at 5192-5226 at the worst scenario but this will happen only if the Nifty fails to cross 5935 before the end of Jan-FO series.
The markets likely to get support at 5670 level as first support and if trades below that level then the support at 5445-15 level at the October-07 level. So long the Reliance stays above 2630-50 level, ICICI stays above 1135-29 level and the ONDC stays above 1090-1110, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. This correction is a measure to MFs & FIIs to save themselves from the Mid-cap trap happened at 2005.
The Fittest will….
The trouble was there in the market when the markets crossed 6300 at Nifty level and the supports became weak but it survived on the euphoria of Mid and small cap run-up. I personally warned in my write up titled..(Y can’t it be…………….Dt.18-11-2007……. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………).
The situation could not have this much worse but the deep write down mess in the US financial sector gave an opportunity to correct the steep valuations at the home. So the conclusion is as simple as that “Never buy beyond a point… the point can be identified by the age old, ever green safe investment method—P/E ratio”.
So never blame the market or the seller who made you to buy. It is a simple marketing strategy. While some one out for shopping shall understand his/her home needs rather than blaming marketing people. The emotions at stock market will drain the purse and fill the heart with pain.
Distribute and eliminate…………..21-11-2007
Who will buy at higher levels is all ways the question asked by many and the doubt can be answered only when some body experiences the taste of buying at the top and selling at the panic bottom.
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used and shout… buy buy buying—happening every where……create a confusion in the minds of investors and make them to believe every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.
In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses? The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.
“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through a research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………
Gross & wild violation…..22-11-2007
Any body who live with technicals can contribute this fall is steep and wild in violating the supports. Any way the fact is the bottom is lost. The hope totally depended on the reliance, ONGC and SBI. They are very strong even at this level of correction. The bulls have the last opportunity to believe the market is a Bull market until it stays above 5175-80 levels. The markets can fluctuate with a wide range of spread for a greater consolidation as the prices have reached relatively high level.
Then the hope lies a head so long the RIL stays above 2580 at immediate support level and can even touch 2440-50 level. The ONGC got the support at 1090 and even can touch 1010-20 level. The big banking leader can touch 2020-2030 and even touch 1910-1900.
So wait and see what will happen at global level and at the local level. The ray of hope lies with the support from local institutions and the deep-pocketed HNIs who are waiting for long time when the FIIs are at buying spree after the rate cut at US.
Y can’t it be…………….18-11-2007
The story is contrary to the current happenings at the bourses. The positive side shall go this way….
In my earlier write up I clearly mention to hold positions in fertilizer stocks for decent gains. Now they doubled from the prices recommended to buy & hold. In the same manner I wrote about the investments of FIIs in our markets. They first invested huge amounts in the Reliance group. They are familiar with the reliance group growth story than the Indian growth story. Now they are spreading their investments to other sectors with different groups. The large caps are rather fully saturated at the price level and left with little scope for further appreciation. So the MFs, FIIs and the DIIs are left with no option but to explore new opportunities with emerging companies though they are small to medium in size at this point in time. The flare up in prices is due to the mismatch in their size and the liquid cash chasing the stock.
The negative side shall go this way….
The small cap and the medium cap stocks are now in their flare-up run at the bourses, but the investigative approach can show a dark side of manipulations in the game.
The story goes back to the 2005-2006, the FIIs, the MFs and the operators heavily invested in (the early bird catches the fish) the Mid-small cps to capture the instant large gains which turned out a futile effort due to lack of liquidity due to the steep crash when the Sensex was at 12000 range. The investments became dud for long two years with no moves. After a long frustration, now these people captured the up moves with vengeance. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will know about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………
The end of the BULLRUN?.17-12-2007
The markets are taking deep breath to settle for a long leap up move or end of the Bull Run? Is the question at this point?
I see a steep correction like that happened in May 2005 if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run.
Incase the nifty fails to trade and close above 5885 tomorrow, it is likely that the markets likely to touch 5321-28 level and then markets need strong cues to rejuvenate the bulls.
The big boys of the market are very silent for their own reasons but the time has come that they need to infuse vital medicine to the Bulls to take on Bears. The good support of RIL at 2640-30, SBI has support at 2135-2128, ONGC has support at 1060-70, Bharti at 835-829 level and the ICICI has support at 1085-1090. Incase two or three stocks could stay above 4-5% above those support levels then the markets are for the Bulls.
The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma
With out doubt, the Small cap and Mid-cap run-up story is intact until the Nifty stays above 4865-4935 levels.
The retail investors always caught because of the Price Luring while moving up and Fear of Loss while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.
Uncertainty is Certain… 25-12-2007
The stock valuations are most vulnerable by their nature to the minor and major issues and to local and international issues even if they are not of much importance on the face of influence a lot in the minds of investors cause anxiety fluctuate in price irrespective of the percentage of concern. We can easily say, “the uncertainty is certain” at the bourses each time and every time. Those who fear about uncertainty can search their souls in peace, as nothing is certain.
As expected in my earlier write up the market bounced back on bull track in 4 trading sessions.(………if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run…….. The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma).
Now the challenge at the Nifty level is to stay above 5778-71 to register a new high and above 6400 level by the end of first week of Feb-2008. The run up in the prices of power and infra will take a back seat and the service sectors and hotels will enjoy the support of bulls along with FMGC & retail move. The gas transportation and the network is the emerging sector. I have been suggesting holding in Fertliser stocks and the next big bet on banks with insurance exposure. These sectors will explode maximum followed by oil exploration and allied services.
No longer immune…….
The Indian markets are resilient to the external pressures of equity fall as the markets see good future but the immediate and short-term pressures cann’t be ruled out. In my ealier write up dated: 29/10/2007, clearly mentioned the possible up side be capped at 6290.
It can’t be stretched further….
…..I foresee the Bull run can become a long consolidation period- more than 6-9 months with a range of 5250-6290 at Nifty level.
The markets are likely to see more down ward action than upward momentum. The rise and fall ratio could be of 1:3 from next week onwards until Aug-Sep-2008. Incase economy could face the challenges for next 6 months than the upward journey in the stocks resume. Indian stocks revaluation based on the broad based economy and growth prospects is over and the real test is that the companies have to perform given the opportunities, then the markets. So is US………
The markets are fighting for their survival as the Bull Run took a beating at the bourses. The markets will take considerable time to resume their upward move. (Pls.read my earlier write ups.---the range suggested at 5250-6290 but the high touched at 6347). The game plans of the operators are very clear that they took the Sub-prime issue for more than 6-months so that the retail investors forget. I warned that the sub-prime issue is much bigger than what they pronouncing.
Now the long period of consolidation is good opportunity to traders as they can get in and get out at every 12-15% rise and fall. The earnings will be good to the Indian industry as the consumer demand and the economic growth continue to flourish. The markets likely to test the bottom at 5192-5226 at the worst scenario but this will happen only if the Nifty fails to cross 5935 before the end of Jan-FO series.
The markets likely to get support at 5670 level as first support and if trades below that level then the support at 5445-15 level at the October-07 level. So long the Reliance stays above 2630-50 level, ICICI stays above 1135-29 level and the ONDC stays above 1090-1110, SBI stays above 2020 and the Bharti stays above 810 level the markets enjoy the bulls support. This correction is a measure to MFs & FIIs to save themselves from the Mid-cap trap happened at 2005.
The Fittest will….
The trouble was there in the market when the markets crossed 6300 at Nifty level and the supports became weak but it survived on the euphoria of Mid and small cap run-up. I personally warned in my write up titled..(Y can’t it be…………….Dt.18-11-2007……. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will now about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………).
The situation could not have this much worse but the deep write down mess in the US financial sector gave an opportunity to correct the steep valuations at the home. So the conclusion is as simple as that “Never buy beyond a point… the point can be identified by the age old, ever green safe investment method—P/E ratio”.
So never blame the market or the seller who made you to buy. It is a simple marketing strategy. While some one out for shopping shall understand his/her home needs rather than blaming marketing people. The emotions at stock market will drain the purse and fill the heart with pain.
Distribute and eliminate…………..21-11-2007
Who will buy at higher levels is all ways the question asked by many and the doubt can be answered only when some body experiences the taste of buying at the top and selling at the panic bottom.
“Don’t be CRAZY to chase…”, “be cautious…..,” the phrases often used and shout… buy buy buying—happening every where……create a confusion in the minds of investors and make them to believe every thing is rosy and beautiful. This is a classical effort to prepare the retail small investors to become scapegoats.
In my earlier write up cautioned the readers to think about the happenings at the bourses? The speeds at which things are happening are very new to Indian investors and are losing time, opportunity and money in the process. The game plans are designed in such a manner to eliminate the retail investor incase somebody holding good stocks at fair prices.
“The steep falls and steep rises give little time to think.”— “Stock Market” is a mind game and every step of investment shall go after through a research, understanding the business and the timing of pricing the investment.
At the end of the day “Minting Money” in the “Stock Market” comes by “Buy Low- Sell High” but not by buying cheap………………
Gross & wild violation…..22-11-2007
Any body who live with technicals can contribute this fall is steep and wild in violating the supports. Any way the fact is the bottom is lost. The hope totally depended on the reliance, ONGC and SBI. They are very strong even at this level of correction. The bulls have the last opportunity to believe the market is a Bull market until it stays above 5175-80 levels. The markets can fluctuate with a wide range of spread for a greater consolidation as the prices have reached relatively high level.
Then the hope lies a head so long the RIL stays above 2580 at immediate support level and can even touch 2440-50 level. The ONGC got the support at 1090 and even can touch 1010-20 level. The big banking leader can touch 2020-2030 and even touch 1910-1900.
So wait and see what will happen at global level and at the local level. The ray of hope lies with the support from local institutions and the deep-pocketed HNIs who are waiting for long time when the FIIs are at buying spree after the rate cut at US.
Y can’t it be…………….18-11-2007
The story is contrary to the current happenings at the bourses. The positive side shall go this way….
In my earlier write up I clearly mention to hold positions in fertilizer stocks for decent gains. Now they doubled from the prices recommended to buy & hold. In the same manner I wrote about the investments of FIIs in our markets. They first invested huge amounts in the Reliance group. They are familiar with the reliance group growth story than the Indian growth story. Now they are spreading their investments to other sectors with different groups. The large caps are rather fully saturated at the price level and left with little scope for further appreciation. So the MFs, FIIs and the DIIs are left with no option but to explore new opportunities with emerging companies though they are small to medium in size at this point in time. The flare up in prices is due to the mismatch in their size and the liquid cash chasing the stock.
The negative side shall go this way….
The small cap and the medium cap stocks are now in their flare-up run at the bourses, but the investigative approach can show a dark side of manipulations in the game.
The story goes back to the 2005-2006, the FIIs, the MFs and the operators heavily invested in (the early bird catches the fish) the Mid-small cps to capture the instant large gains which turned out a futile effort due to lack of liquidity due to the steep crash when the Sensex was at 12000 range. The investments became dud for long two years with no moves. After a long frustration, now these people captured the up moves with vengeance. I personally feel that the prices were sky rocketing with thin edge time to participate in those sharp moves is a clear sign of distribution at higher levels.
The retail investor will know about the rise in the scrip at the end of the day, after the next day the participation comes above 20% rise. To conclude the view, these stocks likely to hit the lower circuits or steep fall occur after three to five trading sessions of Bull Run. Be cautious……………………
The end of the BULLRUN?.17-12-2007
The markets are taking deep breath to settle for a long leap up move or end of the Bull Run? Is the question at this point?
I see a steep correction like that happened in May 2005 if the Nifty to close above 5935 with in 3 trading sessions. At the immediate level the Nifty shall not close below 5670 level to continue the bull run.
Incase the nifty fails to trade and close above 5885 tomorrow, it is likely that the markets likely to touch 5321-28 level and then markets need strong cues to rejuvenate the bulls.
The big boys of the market are very silent for their own reasons but the time has come that they need to infuse vital medicine to the Bulls to take on Bears. The good support of RIL at 2640-30, SBI has support at 2135-2128, ONGC has support at 1060-70, Bharti at 835-829 level and the ICICI has support at 1085-1090. Incase two or three stocks could stay above 4-5% above those support levels then the markets are for the Bulls.
The markets likely to take help from the tech stocks, FMGC and from the Pharma
With out doubt, the Small cap and Mid-cap run-up story is intact until the Nifty stays above 4865-4935 levels.
The retail investors always caught because of the Price Luring while moving up and Fear of Loss while falling down. The markets always provide enough chance to make money but we tend to be ignorant to catch the opportunity. So it is not the BEST PRICE to buy A STOCK but the RIGHT TIME to buy is very important.
Monday, November 17, 2008
RAKESH STOCKS
A COPY OF RAKESH STOCKS FOR READERS:thanks to BASANT
31.03.08 30.06.08 22.08.08 Rs cr % Cap
Titan industries 4060756 3985756 1245 496 20.55 32 5528
Aptech 13254403 13254403 219 290 12.02 260 1017
Praj Industries 15026664 13376624 171 229 9.47 21 3136
Lupin 2927135 2752135 731 201 8.33 13 6014
Crisil 550000 550000 3591 198 8.18 23 2601
Nagarjuna Const. 12450000 15625000 118 184 7.64 17 2707
Bilcare 2025000 2025000 675 137 5.66 18 1161
Punj lloyd 5040000 5040000 270 136 5.64 29 8172
Karur Vysya Bank 2569073 2494073 335 84 3.46 10 1806
Pantaloon Retail 2330895 2330895 342 80 3.30 48 5446
Geojit 18000000 18000000 42 76 3.13 21 876
Bhushan Steel 829900 829000 850 70 2.92 8 3600
Prime Focus 882500 882500 418 37 1.53 20 531
Provogue 480000 380000 716 27 1.13 60 1624
Agrotech Foods 1703259 1703259 132 22 0.93 20 321
Autoline Industries 160389 1211622 180 22 0.90 9 220
Viceroy Hotels 4250000 4250000 51 22 0.90 33 216
Infomedia 1506062 1506062 142 21 0.89 - 281
Geometric Soft 2735000 3035000 57 17 0.72 13 351
ChampagneIndage 0 438650 381 17 0.69 15 582
Zen technologies 450000 450000 160 7 0.30 11 130
ION Exchange 500000 500000 141 7 0.29 19 178
MidDay Multimedia 2250000 2250000 25 6 0.23 - 133
Kajaria Ceramics 1502642 1502642 33 5 0.21 16 250
JB Chemicals 1081650 1081650 43 5 0.19 6 364
Alphageo 125000 125000 363 5 0.19 8 185
Garware Wall Rope 500000 500000 82 4 0.17 7.6 192
Dwarikesh Sugars 450000 450000 85 4 0.16 - 140
MRO Tek 570834 570834 54 3 0.13 6.5 102
Rishi Lazer 380000 380000 63 2 0.10 11 50
Vadilal Industries 200000 200000 46 1 0.04 9 32
TOTAL VALUE 2414
Colors in blue represent stocks where holdings have gone up and in red represent stocks where holdings have gone down.
• One of the smartest investors in the country believes in the benefits of portfolio concentration. His top 5 holdings account for 57.719% of his portfolio and his top 10 holdings account for almost 83.03% of his portfolio.
• The recent stock market crash this portfolio has seen a notional loss of around 40%. From the January highs
• This portfolio has the latest market cap and the Price to earnings ratio as sourced from money control. The average Price Earnings ratio adjusted for the companies that have no earnings is around 27 times! But most of these smaller capitalized companies in sectors that are scalable.
• The underlying theme in the portfolio remains domestic consumption (Titan and Pantaloon,), Infrastructure (Nagarjuna Construction and Punj Lloyd) , pharma (Lupin and Bil Care) and financial Services (Crisil and Karur Vysya Bank.)
• It is hard to find a cyclical or commodity stock in his portfolio.
• Unlike the general investor none of these stocks are large caps in the true sense of the definition. Of Course he could be holding future positions in large caps but the point that I am trying to make is money is made in small and mid caps only. The notional losses that an investor can suffer are also the highest in these stocks. It is very important for an investor not to convert these notional losses in actual losses by selling the shares in despair.
• Most of these stocks are being held for over 4 years. Companies like Titan, Pantaloon Retail fall in that category. Others like Crisil are being held for as long as 10 years. – Clearly Time and not timing is the key to these markets.
• Almost all these companies are looking at a huge external scale of opportunity whether it is a Titan or a Pantaloon a Nagarjuna Construction or Lupin the sheer size of the addressable market is humongous. – Morale of the story “See the Bigger Picture”.
• We do cover companies with huge scale of opportunity TheEquityDesk Report card June 2008 section.
• These shares are held by Rakesh and his wife Rekha Jhunjhunwala and form a part of his disclosed portfolio. He could be holding more shares through companies, trusts, proprietary accounts which are not in the public domain.
• To know more about investing legends see the section World's greatest Investors
Edited by basant - 09/Sep/2008 at 1:41pm
31.03.08 30.06.08 22.08.08 Rs cr % Cap
Titan industries 4060756 3985756 1245 496 20.55 32 5528
Aptech 13254403 13254403 219 290 12.02 260 1017
Praj Industries 15026664 13376624 171 229 9.47 21 3136
Lupin 2927135 2752135 731 201 8.33 13 6014
Crisil 550000 550000 3591 198 8.18 23 2601
Nagarjuna Const. 12450000 15625000 118 184 7.64 17 2707
Bilcare 2025000 2025000 675 137 5.66 18 1161
Punj lloyd 5040000 5040000 270 136 5.64 29 8172
Karur Vysya Bank 2569073 2494073 335 84 3.46 10 1806
Pantaloon Retail 2330895 2330895 342 80 3.30 48 5446
Geojit 18000000 18000000 42 76 3.13 21 876
Bhushan Steel 829900 829000 850 70 2.92 8 3600
Prime Focus 882500 882500 418 37 1.53 20 531
Provogue 480000 380000 716 27 1.13 60 1624
Agrotech Foods 1703259 1703259 132 22 0.93 20 321
Autoline Industries 160389 1211622 180 22 0.90 9 220
Viceroy Hotels 4250000 4250000 51 22 0.90 33 216
Infomedia 1506062 1506062 142 21 0.89 - 281
Geometric Soft 2735000 3035000 57 17 0.72 13 351
ChampagneIndage 0 438650 381 17 0.69 15 582
Zen technologies 450000 450000 160 7 0.30 11 130
ION Exchange 500000 500000 141 7 0.29 19 178
MidDay Multimedia 2250000 2250000 25 6 0.23 - 133
Kajaria Ceramics 1502642 1502642 33 5 0.21 16 250
JB Chemicals 1081650 1081650 43 5 0.19 6 364
Alphageo 125000 125000 363 5 0.19 8 185
Garware Wall Rope 500000 500000 82 4 0.17 7.6 192
Dwarikesh Sugars 450000 450000 85 4 0.16 - 140
MRO Tek 570834 570834 54 3 0.13 6.5 102
Rishi Lazer 380000 380000 63 2 0.10 11 50
Vadilal Industries 200000 200000 46 1 0.04 9 32
TOTAL VALUE 2414
Colors in blue represent stocks where holdings have gone up and in red represent stocks where holdings have gone down.
• One of the smartest investors in the country believes in the benefits of portfolio concentration. His top 5 holdings account for 57.719% of his portfolio and his top 10 holdings account for almost 83.03% of his portfolio.
• The recent stock market crash this portfolio has seen a notional loss of around 40%. From the January highs
• This portfolio has the latest market cap and the Price to earnings ratio as sourced from money control. The average Price Earnings ratio adjusted for the companies that have no earnings is around 27 times! But most of these smaller capitalized companies in sectors that are scalable.
• The underlying theme in the portfolio remains domestic consumption (Titan and Pantaloon,), Infrastructure (Nagarjuna Construction and Punj Lloyd) , pharma (Lupin and Bil Care) and financial Services (Crisil and Karur Vysya Bank.)
• It is hard to find a cyclical or commodity stock in his portfolio.
• Unlike the general investor none of these stocks are large caps in the true sense of the definition. Of Course he could be holding future positions in large caps but the point that I am trying to make is money is made in small and mid caps only. The notional losses that an investor can suffer are also the highest in these stocks. It is very important for an investor not to convert these notional losses in actual losses by selling the shares in despair.
• Most of these stocks are being held for over 4 years. Companies like Titan, Pantaloon Retail fall in that category. Others like Crisil are being held for as long as 10 years. – Clearly Time and not timing is the key to these markets.
• Almost all these companies are looking at a huge external scale of opportunity whether it is a Titan or a Pantaloon a Nagarjuna Construction or Lupin the sheer size of the addressable market is humongous. – Morale of the story “See the Bigger Picture”.
• We do cover companies with huge scale of opportunity TheEquityDesk Report card June 2008 section.
• These shares are held by Rakesh and his wife Rekha Jhunjhunwala and form a part of his disclosed portfolio. He could be holding more shares through companies, trusts, proprietary accounts which are not in the public domain.
• To know more about investing legends see the section World's greatest Investors
Edited by basant - 09/Sep/2008 at 1:41pm
Saturday, May 12, 2007
Stocks - Travel Plan-2008 on wards....
In 2007-08 and for next two years, the Metals stocks will melt, the Real estate stocks reel under RBI interests. The Banks will be forced to bargain on their defaulter’s demands for recovery and the Software hardened enough to bounce due to weak dollar but BPO & KPO may find more seats. The Auto sector may be forced to roll on rough roads in India but foreign highways welcome them. The Consumer goods reap the profits but marketing consume what they earned. The Sugars lost their sweetness but the ray of hope in carbon credits and ethanol has some dose. Those who fly in dreams today may be after long years of waiting shall enjoy the Aviation.
In the darkness, the Power generation and Transmissions will have bright light.
The Energy stocks got sustained energy by exploring their underneath core values. The legal adulteration of petrol may pore profits to Refineries with out-lets. The Cements consolidate over a period of time with the enlarging the infra structure facilities. The Phrama may cure its’ ill health with new drug discoveries and with bio-technology. The future bright picture is in TVs’ & theatres established in malls with entertainment and clarity in print Media while the Tele- Mobiles will ring money tunes for longer period. Try to insure the future of the Children in association with Insurance Sector and Nuclear energy.
Above all, the big is beautiful as icons of history but the small and medium companies with their rapid growth rate make themselves as Multi-bagger stocks. The effort is to find the right business model to invest and reap rewards heavily. The whole effort is to focus not for a day or for months to live with meager profits but to spot the goldmines by exploring the intrinsic strength of the Stock.
In the darkness, the Power generation and Transmissions will have bright light.
The Energy stocks got sustained energy by exploring their underneath core values. The legal adulteration of petrol may pore profits to Refineries with out-lets. The Cements consolidate over a period of time with the enlarging the infra structure facilities. The Phrama may cure its’ ill health with new drug discoveries and with bio-technology. The future bright picture is in TVs’ & theatres established in malls with entertainment and clarity in print Media while the Tele- Mobiles will ring money tunes for longer period. Try to insure the future of the Children in association with Insurance Sector and Nuclear energy.
Above all, the big is beautiful as icons of history but the small and medium companies with their rapid growth rate make themselves as Multi-bagger stocks. The effort is to find the right business model to invest and reap rewards heavily. The whole effort is to focus not for a day or for months to live with meager profits but to spot the goldmines by exploring the intrinsic strength of the Stock.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Energetic companies
Like human beings, companies born, enjoy their young days and matured with their special qualities, get reorganization for their expertise and become old over a period of time, vanish all the celebrity.
Try to invest in young companies whose capacities to rule the future is unrealized but their enthusiasm to excel is highly exhibited. These qualities reflect and can be understood by the balance sheet. The initial times is rosy and fairly reward their investors. These young companies become matured over a period of time but many a times survive with depleting energies. As the time passes, they even become old companies and drag their life in their respective category of industry as destitute. Their performance grossly depends on the industry fortune and nothing special about them. These companies hardly enrich the new investors.
Invest for long term in those companies whose experience has the multi dimensional reach to grab the existing opportunities and place their hands on the emerging opportunities. Their sustained energy always reflected as incremental increase in their market capitalization. The company management has to be respected even in case of bad cyclical weather that lives for short term. The matured companies live with energetic mood to expand, perform and enrich their investors.
Now the special case arouses. The matured companies fail to with stand the vagaries of down turn fortunes, may lead to a stage like ‘coma’ for some period of time. The new investors/ management come to the rescue, infuse fresh energy into the team that could change the face the company. Most of the times, these companies reward their trusted investors and become “Multi- baggers”.
Try to invest in young companies whose capacities to rule the future is unrealized but their enthusiasm to excel is highly exhibited. These qualities reflect and can be understood by the balance sheet. The initial times is rosy and fairly reward their investors. These young companies become matured over a period of time but many a times survive with depleting energies. As the time passes, they even become old companies and drag their life in their respective category of industry as destitute. Their performance grossly depends on the industry fortune and nothing special about them. These companies hardly enrich the new investors.
Invest for long term in those companies whose experience has the multi dimensional reach to grab the existing opportunities and place their hands on the emerging opportunities. Their sustained energy always reflected as incremental increase in their market capitalization. The company management has to be respected even in case of bad cyclical weather that lives for short term. The matured companies live with energetic mood to expand, perform and enrich their investors.
Now the special case arouses. The matured companies fail to with stand the vagaries of down turn fortunes, may lead to a stage like ‘coma’ for some period of time. The new investors/ management come to the rescue, infuse fresh energy into the team that could change the face the company. Most of the times, these companies reward their trusted investors and become “Multi- baggers”.
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